WTO Releases World Trade Report 2025 Highlighting AI’s Potential to Boost Global Trade by 2040.

In September 2025, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) released its annual World Trade Report 2025 (WTR) titled “Making Trade and AI Work Together to the Benefit of All” during the WTO Public Forum in Switzerland. The report examines the transformative role of artificial intelligence (AI) in global trade, projecting up to a 40% increase in trade by 2040 and significant economic benefits.

      - The WTR 2025 projects that AI could increase global trade by 34–37% by 2040, with the largest growth expected in digitally deliverable services. AI adoption is also expected to generate global GDP gains of 12–13%, while nearly 90% of firms using AI report direct trade benefits and 56% report improved trade risk management.

      - AI is estimated to boost annual growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) by approximately 0.68 percentage points. TFP measures how efficiently an economy utilizes inputs such as labour and capital, highlighting AI’s potential to improve economic efficiency and competitiveness.

      - WTO economists modeled multiple AI adoption scenarios to assess impacts on different economies. In the benchmark scenario, Low-Income Economies (LIE) lag behind High-Income Economies (HIE) with projected income gains of 8% for LIE, 11% for Middle-Income Economies (MIE), and 14% for HIE. Improvements in digital infrastructure in LIE or broader AI adoption could raise GDP gains to 11–15% for low- and middle-income economies.

Main Point :-   (i) In 2023, global trade in AI-enabling goods—including raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate inputs—was valued at USD 2.3 trillion. The report also finds that a 10% increase in digital services trade is associated with a 2.6% rise in AI patent citations across countries, underlining the link between digital trade and innovation.

      (ii) Uneven adoption of AI persists, with only 41% of small firms reporting AI use compared to over 60% of large firms. Fewer than one-third of firms in low- and lower-middle-income economies utilize AI, highlighting disparities in access to technology and its economic benefits.

(iii) Global subsidies for AI-related products have exceeded 15%, with over 98% coming from high- and upper-middle-income countries, raising the risk of concentrated AI capabilities. The number of quantitative restrictions on AI-related goods has increased sharply, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, and bound tariffs on AI-enabling goods in some LIE reach up to 45%, emphasizing the need for open and predictable trade policies.
About World Trade Organisation (WTO)