Fitch Ratings Raises India’s FY26 GDP Forecast to 6.9% in September 2025 Global Economic Outlook Report.

In September 2025, Fitch Ratings Inc. released the September edition of its Global Economic Outlook (GEO) Report, revising India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for FY26 to 6.9%, up from its earlier estimate of 6.5% in June 2025. The upgrade reflects strong services sector growth and rising private and public consumption.

      - Fitch Ratings increased India’s GDP growth forecast by 40 basis points (bps), from 6.5% in the June 2025 GEO Report to 6.9% in September 2025 for FY26. This growth is largely driven by the services sector, which expanded by 9.3% annually.

      - The report projects that India’s GDP will moderate in the coming years, with growth expected at 6.3% in FY27 and 6.2% in FY28, signaling a gradual slowdown after the FY26 boost.

Main Point :-   (i) Fitch highlighted that India’s inflation cooled significantly, with headline inflation dropping to 1.6% in July 2025—the lowest since June 2017. Core inflation also eased to below 4% for the first time in six months, aided by ample food reserves and reduced food prices.

      (ii) Global GDP growth projections were raised by 20 bps, from 2.2% (June 2025) to 2.4% for Calendar Year 2025 (CY25), supported by stronger economic activity in China and the Eurozone. However, growth for CY26 is projected at 2.3%, still below the 2024 rate of 2.9%.

(iii) The report forecasts a gradual pickup in inflation in India, reaching 3.2% by the end of 2025 and 4.1% by the end of 2026. This indicates that while the short-term inflationary pressure has eased, medium-term inflationary risks remain.
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