CRISIL Retains India’s GDP Growth Forecast at 6.5% for FY26 in Latest Macroeconomics Report.
Economy Business
On September 2, 2025, Credit Rating Information Services of India Limited (CRISIL), one of India’s leading credit rating agencies, released its latest Macroeconomics Report. The report maintained India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast at 6.5% for the Financial Year 2025–26 (FY26), while projecting 7.8% growth in Quarter 1 (April–June 2025).
- CRISIL’s report highlighted that India’s economic momentum is being driven by strong domestic demand, easing inflation, and policy support from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The outlook reflects stability despite challenges posed by global uncertainties and trade risks.
- In its analysis, CRISIL observed that India’s nominal GDP growth slowed to 8.8% in Q1 of FY26, compared to 10.8% in the same quarter of FY25. This moderation was largely attributed to easing inflationary pressures and the impact of a high base effect from the previous year’s growth.
Main Point :- (i) Private consumption remains the most significant driver of India’s growth trajectory. CRISIL noted that favorable monsoon conditions, reduced inflation, the lowering of the repo rate by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Income Tax (IT) relief measures, and increased rural spending have collectively boosted household demand and sustained economic activity.
(ii) However, the report also flagged external challenges. A major risk factor highlighted was the 50% tariff imposed by the United States of America (USA) on Indian exports, which could negatively impact trade performance. Additionally, a deceleration in the global economy could further constrain India’s export sector and private investments.
(iii) Despite these risks, CRISIL reaffirmed confidence in India’s medium-term growth story. The report emphasized that India’s combination of strong policy support, resilient domestic demand, and improving inflation management positions the economy to meet its 6.5% GDP growth forecast for FY26.
About CRISIL Ratings Limited
CEO: Amish Mehta
Headquarter : Mumbai
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