SBI Research Ecowrap Projects India’s Q1 FY26 GDP Growth at 6.8%-7.0%, Above RBI Estimate.
Economy Business
In August 2025, SBI Research, the economic research division of the State Bank of India (SBI), released its Ecowrap report estimating India’s GDP growth in Q1 FY26 at 6.8%-7.0%, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forecast of 6.5%.
- SBI Research’s Ecowrap highlighted India’s real GDP growth at 6.9% year-on-year in Q1 FY26, driven by government capital expenditure and resilient consumption despite weak private investment momentum.
- The report projected Gross Value Added (GVA) growth at 6.5% for Q1 FY26, reflecting broad-based sectoral contributions but underlining uneven recovery patterns in industrial and agricultural performance.
- For the full FY26, SBI Research forecasted India’s GDP growth at 6.3%, marginally below RBI’s projection of 6.5%, indicating concerns regarding sustainability of momentum in subsequent quarters.
Main Point :- (i) SBI Research has revised India’s GDP outlook for remaining FY26 quarters, lowering each by 20 basis points. It projects 6.5% growth in Q2, 6.3% in Q3, and 6.1% in Q4, reflecting cautious economic momentum.
(ii) SBI Research emphasized that capital expenditure (Capex) from the government continues to anchor growth, while private sector investments remain muted, restricting the economy from achieving stronger growth acceleration.
(iii) The Ecowrap report cautioned that while consumption remains resilient, balancing inflationary pressures, fiscal discipline, and external trade challenges will be crucial for India to sustain its medium-term growth outlook.
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