World Trade Organization (WTO) Forecasts 0.2% Decline in Global Goods Trade for 2025.
Economy Business
In April 2025, the Geneva (Switzerland)-based World Trade Organization (WTO) released its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, forecasting a 0.2% decline in global merchandise trade volume for 2025 under current tariff and policy conditions. This marks a sharp downward revision from the 3.0% growth forecast made in October 2024, reflecting growing trade tensions, tariff hikes, and policy uncertainty across regions.
- The global commercial services trade is expected to grow at a slower rate of 4.0% in 2025, down from previous projections, due to subdued demand and policy frictions.
- North America is expected to witness the sharpest contraction, with exports declining by 12.6% and imports falling by 9.6%, dragging down global trade growth by 1.7 percentage points.
- Asia is projected to see modest growth in both exports and imports at 1.6%, while Europe anticipates 1.0% growth in exports and 1.9% in imports, reflecting a mixed regional recovery.
Main Point :- (i) The imposition of reciprocal tariffs is estimated to reduce global trade growth by 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a significant impact of protectionist measures.
(ii) Trade policy uncertainty could potentially further depress global trade growth by 0.8 percentage points, underlining the importance of stable international trade regulations.
About World Trade Organization (WTO)
Director-General: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
Headquarters: Geneva, Switzerland
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