SBI Report Projects India’s Inflation to Remain Below 4% in H1 FY26.

Banking & Finance

On April 6, 2025, a report released by the State Bank of India (SBI), headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, projected that India's retail inflation may remain between 3.9% and 4.0% during the first half (April to September) of Financial Year 2025-26 (H1 FY26). If realized, this would mark the first time in recent years that inflation remains below 4% for two consecutive quarters.


      - Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to fall to 3.8% in Q4 of FY25, with the average inflation for FY25 projected at around 4.6%.

      - Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) is forecasted to range between 4.2% and 4.3% in FY26.

      - The report also anticipates that India’s current account balance could record a surplus in Q4 FY25, driven by rising net service receipts despite a widening merchandise trade deficit.

Main Point :-   (i) In Q3 FY25, India's Current Account Deficit (CAD) stood at USD 11.5 billion, or 1.1% of GDP, rising from USD 10.4 billion in Q3 FY24.

      (ii) The merchandise trade deficit increased to USD 79.2 billion, up from USD 71.6 billion in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year.


About SBI

Chairman : Challa Sreenivasulu Setty
Headquarter : Mumbai
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